3 Things I Wish I Knew When I Started Trading Forex
3 Things I Wish I Knew When I Started Trading Forex
Trade Forex for a living Steps to take and mistakes to avoid
How To Trade Forex For A Living (& TELL YR BOSS TO KISS ...
Financialmarketwizards - How to Trade Forex for a Living
Day Trading For a Living - How to Make a Living as a Day ...
How Much Money Do I need to Trade Forex, Stocks, Indices, or Cryptocurrency for a Living?
How Much Money Do I Needto Trade Forex, Stocks, Indices, or Cryptocurrency for a Living? Most traders start with small accounts of up to $ 5,000 or similar and plan to become millionaires within a year. Experienced traders already realize that this is, of course, wrong. You can only fault yourself because you have ambitious goals that will only frustrate you. Of our Tournament, we need a 10 percent monthly growth and that is called an advantage. The 10 percent benefit has been selected for being inspiring and still achievable. There is practically no day when all of our projects don't meet a Challenge. Many traders are going to make this required benefit too small, but FTMO has a set maximum loss of 10 percent. So we want the trader to earn 10% of the initial capital within 30 days, without losing 10% of the initial capital. So the desired profit, as well as the maximum permissible loss, are in balance. Since we are traders too, we know that there are sometimes months that do not correspond to our plan. If you do not achieve the desired profit, you will receive a new Challenge from us at least zero at the end of the period and you do not violate any other rule. We have an idea, thanks to a relatively large number of traders, of what we should expect from traders who progressed to their live FTMO accounts. More caution is generally exercised on the funded account, and consequently, the average gain is lower than in the Challenge. Only rare exceptions are profiting in tens of percent. We as investors are pleased to see a 4-7 percent long-term appreciation. Money for Trading Let's compare two accounts, a smaller account at around $5,000, and a $100,000 account that we're offering to manage. Let's be optimistic and count on a 7 percent monthly appreciation. The $5,000 account 's final profit would be $350 Our $100,000-funded account would print the $7,000 profit, but in this case, it is necessary to deduct our portion of the profit. You will earn a net profit of $4,900 after taking our 30 percent, which corresponds to the salary of an experienced banking programmer or financial analyst. If this was your first trading month, the fee you originally paid for the Challenge will also be refunded to you. Working with the concept of opportunity cost, too, is important. This term identifies the most profitable alternative activity you might be able to do, rather than trade. Hence we compare the alternative employment income vs. the resulting monthly profit. Let's say you could stay at work for two hours longer instead of evening trading, and take an extra $8/hour. Your trading will cost you $320 a month (20 working days x $16), Only because you're doing it. The resulting monthly trading income is only $30 higher ($350-$320) for your $5,000 account, and you risk your entire deposit! In the case of $100,000 of the FTMO account, the resulting net profit is $4,580, and our company will cover any potential risk of loss. These numbers are a little bit better, don't you think? It should also be remembered that if you ended up at zero for a month on a trading account, you'll earn $320 if you didn't trade. At first glance, it's obvious that living on a long-term basis without risking too much and putting trading on the side of gambling is not very realistic out of a small $5,000 account. So we think our services are of interest to all serious traders. Have you got what it takes? Make sure you pass and become a Funded FTMO Trader by completing the Challenge. If you have any questions please leave a comment below. Cheers and Profitable Trading to All. Eva "Forex" Canares How's Does FTMO Work? Upon successful completion of the trading course, you are guaranteed a placement in the FTMO Proprietary Trading firm where you can remotely manage a funded account of up to 100,000 USD. Your journey to get there might be challenging, but our educational applications, account analysis and performance psychologists are here to guide you on the endeavor to financial independence. JOIN THE TEAM OF SUCCESSFUL TRADERS FROM ALL OVER THE WORLD
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I'm trading for 11 months with pretty good success. I never traded metals and forex before, just stocks. Today when gold started to consolidate at the last hour, I decided to scalp short it with a large amount, so I opened 100 lots. I haven't realised, in forex 100 (lots) doesn't mean "100 pcs", because I used to stocks and I went full retard without knowledge. Seconds later, I realised it means 10 million dollars (1 lot = 100.000, and I had 500x leverage). It moved up a bit and immediately I was down £4000. I scared as fuck and rather than closing the position quickly I hoped maybe I could close break even. The market closed, and I waited for the Asian session. The gold popped like never before, and I lost all my life savings (£55000) in less than two hours. (including the 1-hour break between sessions). If I count that I lost all my earnings as well, I lost around £85000. Here is the margin call https://imgur.com/a/XY5m4ZA https://imgur.com/a/VSgmCSs https://imgur.com/pRWl5g9 IC Markets closed my position partially in every 1-2 minutes until I shut it myself at £35. You know the rest of the story. I'm depressed, crying and shouting with myself. Yes, I know I was stupid, thanks. I just wanted to share this with you. Edit: WOW THANK YOU, GUYS! I haven't expected this, but you help me. Many of you asked the same questions, I answer it here: - I live in Europe, and we usually trade CFD's, not futures. - Currency in GBP. - As you can see, this account made on IC Markets. They not just allowing you a 500x leverage, it's the default. - You can ask me why I went against the market. Because gold is way oversold? Because I expected institutions would sell their shares before gold is hitting £2000, leaving retails hanging there. Also, as I said, I wanted to scalp, not riding the gold all the way down. If I had a loss of £100, I would close the position immediately. But when I saw the £4000, my heart is stopped, and my brain just freezes. - I went for a revenge trade with my last £2k, and I don't have to say what happened. I uninstalled the app, and I give up trading for a while. - Again, in the past months, I was cautious, I lost a significant sum in March, but I managed to recover. Made consistent gains, always with SL. This is just an example of how easy is to fuck up everything you did. - I didn't come here for some shiny digital medals. I can't tell about my losses to anyone who I know in real life. I would make a fool of myself. - Anyone who attacking me that it is a scam. Well, think what you want. I feel terrible and the last thing is to answer all the messages saying "You fucking karma whore". I don't give a shit about karma.
Hi guys, I have been using reddit for years in my personal life (not trading!) and wanted to give something back in an area where i am an expert. I worked at an investment bank for seven years and joined them as a graduate FX trader so have lots of professional experience, by which i mean I was trained and paid by a big institution to trade on their behalf. This is very different to being a full-time home trader, although that is not to discredit those guys, who can accumulate a good amount of experience/wisdom through self learning. When I get time I'm going to write a mid-length posts on each topic for you guys along the lines of how i was trained. I guess there would be 15-20 topics in total so about 50-60 posts. Feel free to comment or ask questions. The first topic is Risk Management and we'll cover it in three parts Part I
Why it matters
Using stops sensibly
Picking a clear level
Why it matters
The first rule of making money through trading is to ensure you do not lose money. Look at any serious hedge fund’s website and they’ll talk about their first priority being “preservation of investor capital.” You have to keep it before you grow it. Strangely, if you look at retail trading websites, for every one article on risk management there are probably fifty on trade selection. This is completely the wrong way around. The great news is that this stuff is pretty simple and process-driven. Anyone can learn and follow best practices. Seriously, avoiding mistakes is one of the most important things: there's not some holy grail system for finding winning trades, rather a routine and fairly boring set of processes that ensure that you are profitable, despite having plenty of losing trades alongside the winners.
Capital and position sizing
The first thing you have to know is how much capital you are working with. Let’s say you have $100,000 deposited. This is your maximum trading capital. Your trading capital is not the leveraged amount. It is the amount of money you have deposited and can withdraw or lose. Position sizing is what ensures that a losing streak does not take you out of the market. A rule of thumb is that one should risk no more than 2% of one’s account balance on an individual trade and no more than 8% of one’s account balance on a specific theme. We’ll look at why that’s a rule of thumb later. For now let’s just accept those numbers and look at examples. So we have $100,000 in our account. And we wish to buy EURUSD. We should therefore not be risking more than 2% which $2,000. We look at a technical chart and decide to leave a stop below the monthly low, which is 55 pips below market. We’ll come back to this in a bit. So what should our position size be? We go to the calculator page, select Position Size and enter our details. There are many such calculators online - just google "Pip calculator". https://preview.redd.it/y38zb666e5h51.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=26e4fe569dc5c1f43ce4c746230c49b138691d14 So the appropriate size is a buy position of 363,636 EURUSD. If it reaches our stop level we know we’ll lose precisely $2,000 or 2% of our capital. You should be using this calculator (or something similar) on every single trade so that you know your risk. Now imagine that we have similar bets on EURJPY and EURGBP, which have also broken above moving averages. Clearly this EUR-momentum is a theme. If it works all three bets are likely to pay off. But if it goes wrong we are likely to lose on all three at once. We are going to look at this concept of correlation in more detail later. The total amount of risk in our portfolio - if all of the trades on this EUR-momentum theme were to hit their stops - should not exceed $8,000 or 8% of total capital. This allows us to go big on themes we like without going bust when the theme does not work. As we’ll see later, many traders only win on 40-60% of trades. So you have to accept losing trades will be common and ensure you size trades so they cannot ruin you. Similarly, like poker players, we should risk more on trades we feel confident about and less on trades that seem less compelling. However, this should always be subject to overall position sizing constraints. For example before you put on each trade you might rate the strength of your conviction in the trade and allocate a position size accordingly: https://preview.redd.it/q2ea6rgae5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=4332cb8d0bbbc3d8db972c1f28e8189105393e5b To keep yourself disciplined you should try to ensure that no more than one in twenty trades are graded exceptional and allocated 5% of account balance risk. It really should be a rare moment when all the stars align for you. Notice that the nice thing about dealing in percentages is that it scales. Say you start out with $100,000 but end the year up 50% at $150,000. Now a 1% bet will risk $1,500 rather than $1,000. That makes sense as your capital has grown. It is extremely common for retail accounts to blow-up by making only 4-5 losing trades because they are leveraged at 50:1 and have taken on far too large a position, relative to their account balance. Consider that GBPUSD tends to move 1% each day. If you have an account balance of $10k then it would be crazy to take a position of $500k (50:1 leveraged). A 1% move on $500k is $5k. Two perfectly regular down days in a row — or a single day’s move of 2% — and you will receive a margin call from the broker, have the account closed out, and have lost all your money. Do not let this happen to you. Use position sizing discipline to protect yourself.
If you’re wondering - why “about 2%” per trade? - that’s a fair question. Why not 0.5% or 10% or any other number? The Kelly Criterion is a formula that was adapted for use in casinos. If you know the odds of winning and the expected pay-off, it tells you how much you should bet in each round. This is harder than it sounds. Let’s say you could bet on a weighted coin flip, where it lands on heads 60% of the time and tails 40% of the time. The payout is $2 per $1 bet. Well, absolutely you should bet. The odds are in your favour. But if you have, say, $100 it is less obvious how much you should bet to avoid ruin. Say you bet $50, the odds that it could land on tails twice in a row are 16%. You could easily be out after the first two flips. Equally, betting $1 is not going to maximise your advantage. The odds are 60/40 in your favour so only betting $1 is likely too conservative. The Kelly Criterion is a formula that produces the long-run optimal bet size, given the odds. Applying the formula to forex trading looks like this: Position size % = Winning trade % - ( (1- Winning trade %) / Risk-reward ratio If you have recorded hundreds of trades in your journal - see next chapter - you can calculate what this outputs for you specifically. If you don't have hundreds of trades then let’s assume some realistic defaults of Winning trade % being 30% and Risk-reward ratio being 3. The 3 implies your TP is 3x the distance of your stop from entry e.g. 300 pips take profit and 100 pips stop loss. So that’s 0.3 - (1 - 0.3) / 3 = 6.6%. Hold on a second. 6.6% of your account probably feels like a LOT to risk per trade.This is the main observation people have on Kelly: whilst it may optimise the long-run results it doesn’t take into account the pain of drawdowns. It is better thought of as the rational maximum limit. You needn’t go right up to the limit! With a 30% winning trade ratio, the odds of you losing on four trades in a row is nearly one in four. That would result in a drawdown of nearly a quarter of your starting account balance. Could you really stomach that and put on the fifth trade, cool as ice? Most of us could not. Accordingly people tend to reduce the bet size. For example, let’s say you know you would feel emotionally affected by losing 25% of your account. Well, the simplest way is to divide the Kelly output by four. You have effectively hidden 75% of your account balance from Kelly and it is now optimised to avoid a total wipeout of just the 25% it can see. This gives 6.6% / 4 = 1.65%. Of course different trading approaches and different risk appetites will provide different optimal bet sizes but as a rule of thumb something between 1-2% is appropriate for the style and risk appetite of most retail traders. Incidentally be very wary of systems or traders who claim high winning trade % like 80%. Invariably these don’t pass a basic sense-check:
How many live trades have you done? Often they’ll have done only a handful of real trades and the rest are simulated backtests, which are overfitted. The model will soon die.
What is your risk-reward ratio on each trade? If you have a take profit $3 away and a stop loss $100 away, of course most trades will be winners. You will not be making money, however! In general most traders should trade smaller position sizes and less frequently than they do. If you are going to bias one way or the other, far better to start off too small.
How to use stop losses sensibly
Stop losses have a bad reputation amongst the retail community but are absolutely essential to risk management. No serious discretionary trader can operate without them. A stop loss is a resting order, left with the broker, to automatically close your position if it reaches a certain price. For a recap on the various order types visit this chapter. The valid concern with stop losses is that disreputable brokers look for a concentration of stops and then, when the market is close, whipsaw the price through the stop levels so that the clients ‘stop out’ and sell to the broker at a low rate before the market naturally comes back higher. This is referred to as ‘stop hunting’. This would be extremely immoral behaviour and the way to guard against it is to use a highly reputable top-tier broker in a well regulated region such as the UK. Why are stop losses so important? Well, there is no other way to manage risk with certainty. You should always have a pre-determined stop loss before you put on a trade. Not having one is a recipe for disaster: you will find yourself emotionally attached to the trade as it goes against you and it will be extremely hard to cut the loss. This is a well known behavioural bias that we’ll explore in a later chapter. Learning to take a loss and move on rationally is a key lesson for new traders. A common mistake is to think of the market as a personal nemesis. The market, of course, is totally impersonal; it doesn’t care whether you make money or not. Bruce Kovner, founder of the hedge fund Caxton Associates There is an old saying amongst bank traders which is “losers average losers”. It is tempting, having bought EURUSD and seeing it go lower, to buy more. Your average price will improve if you keep buying as it goes lower. If it was cheap before it must be a bargain now, right? Wrong. Where does that end? Always have a pre-determined cut-off point which limits your risk. A level where you know the reason for the trade was proved ‘wrong’ ... and stick to it strictly. If you trade using discretion, use stops.
Picking a clear level
Where you leave your stop loss is key. Typically traders will leave them at big technical levels such as recent highs or lows. For example if EURUSD is trading at 1.1250 and the recent month’s low is 1.1205 then leaving it just below at 1.1200 seems sensible. If you were going long, just below the double bottom support zone seems like a sensible area to leave a stop You want to give it a bit of breathing room as we know support zones often get challenged before the price rallies. This is because lots of traders identify the same zones. You won’t be the only one selling around 1.1200. The “weak hands” who leave their sell stop order at exactly the level are likely to get taken out as the market tests the support. Those who leave it ten or fifteen pips below the level have more breathing room and will survive a quick test of the level before a resumed run-up. Your timeframe and trading style clearly play a part. Here’s a candlestick chart (one candle is one day) for GBPUSD. https://preview.redd.it/moyngdy4f5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=91af88da00dd3a09e202880d8029b0ddf04fb802 If you are putting on a trend-following trade you expect to hold for weeks then you need to have a stop loss that can withstand the daily noise. Look at the downtrend on the chart. There were plenty of days in which the price rallied 60 pips or more during the wider downtrend. So having a really tight stop of, say, 25 pips that gets chopped up in noisy short-term moves is not going to work for this kind of trade. You need to use a wider stop and take a smaller position size, determined by the stop level. There are several tools you can use to help you estimate what is a safe distance and we’ll look at those in the next section. There are of course exceptions. For example, if you are doing range-break style trading you might have a really tight stop, set just below the previous range high. https://preview.redd.it/ygy0tko7f5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=34af49da61c911befdc0db26af66f6c313556c81 Clearly then where you set stops will depend on your trading style as well as your holding horizons and the volatility of each instrument. Here are some guidelines that can help:
Use technical analysis to pick important levels (support, resistance, previous high/lows, moving averages etc.) as these provide clear exit and entry points on a trade.
Ensure that the stop gives your trade enough room to breathe and reflects your timeframe and typical volatility of each pair. See next section.
Always pick your stop level first. Then use a calculator to determine the appropriate lot size for the position, based on the % of your account balance you wish to risk on the trade.
So far we have talked about price-based stops. There is another sort which is more of a fundamental stop, used alongside - not instead of - price stops. If either breaks you’re out. For example if you stop understanding why a product is going up or down and your fundamental thesis has been confirmed wrong, get out. For example, if you are long because you think the central bank is turning hawkish and AUDUSD is going to play catch up with rates … then you hear dovish noises from the central bank and the bond yields retrace lower and back in line with the currency - close your AUDUSD position. You already know your thesis was wrong. No need to give away more money to the market.
Coming up in part II
EDIT: part II here Letting stops breathe When to change a stop Entering and exiting winning positions Risk:reward ratios Risk-adjusted returns
Coming up in part III
Squeezes and other risks Market positioning Bet correlation Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits *** Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
If you don't know what I am talking about, just type it up. Take 15 seconds of your time, go in google images, and see the difference when you type "Forex lifestyle" and "stock market lifestyle". Theoretically, Forex trading isn't much different than stock trading. Both are financial markets using charts with candlestick that create the same patterns. Both rely on reports, news and the economy. Also, just like the stock market, banks and big insitutions trade forex too. In fact, forex is the largest financial market in the world with a daily volume around $6.6 trillion compared to only $200 billions for all the stock markets. Forex is responsible for the exchange of goods between countries. It is literally the foundation of a worldwide economy. So why is it that when someone asks you what you do for a living or that when you tell someone you're trading forex, you always get that weird suspicious look as if you're a fraud yourself. Why is it that people don't take seriously what you do and what you love doing, because they have this weird idea of a pyramid scheme created in their head. People are so lost. I mean, how could it even be a scam lmao. No matter what you trade: stocks, options, etf, bonds, forex, name them all... trading is trading. As long as I am making money and know what I am doing, and couldn't care less about other people's opinion nowdays lol. But lately I've been asking myself this question and I simply wanted to know other people's opinions. So back to my question: why does Forex gets such a bad rep?
Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part II
Firstly, thanks for the overwhelming comments and feedback. Genuinely really appreciated. I am pleased 500+ of you find it useful. If you didn't read the first post you can do so here: risk management part I. You'll need to do so in order to make sense of the topic. As ever please comment/reply below with questions or feedback and I'll do my best to get back to you. Part II
Letting stops breathe
When to change a stop
Entering and exiting winning positions
Letting stops breathe
We talked earlier about giving a position enough room to breathe so it is not stopped out in day-to-day noise. Let’s consider the chart below and imagine you had a trailing stop. It would be super painful to miss out on the wider move just because you left a stop that was too tight. Imagine being long and stopped out on a meaningless retracement ... ouch! One simple technique is simply to look at your chosen chart - let’s say daily bars. And then look at previous trends and use the measuring tool. Those generally look something like this and then you just click and drag to measure. For example if we wanted to bet on a downtrend on the chart above we might look at the biggest retracement on the previous uptrend. That max drawdown was about 100 pips or just under 1%. So you’d want your stop to be able to withstand at least that. If market conditions have changed - for example if CVIX has risen - and daily ranges are now higher you should incorporate that. If you know a big event is coming up you might think about that, too. The human brain is a remarkable tool and the power of the eye-ball method is not to be dismissed. This is how most discretionary traders do it. There are also more analytical approaches. Some look at the Average True Range (ATR). This attempts to capture the volatility of a pair, typically averaged over a number of sessions. It looks at three separate measures and takes the largest reading. Think of this as a moving average of how much a pair moves. For example, below shows the daily move in EURUSD was around 60 pips before spiking to 140 pips in March. Conditions were clearly far more volatile in March. Accordingly, you would need to leave your stop further away in March and take a correspondingly smaller position size. ATR is available on pretty much all charting systems Professional traders tend to use standard deviation as a measure of volatility instead of ATR. There are advantages and disadvantages to both. Averages are useful but can be misleading when regimes switch (see above chart). Once you have chosen a measure of volatility, stop distance can then be back-tested and optimised. For example does 2x ATR work best or 5x ATR for a given style and time horizon? Discretionary traders may still eye-ball the ATR or standard deviation to get a feeling for how it has changed over time and what ‘normal’ feels like for a chosen study period - daily, weekly, monthly etc.
Reasons to change a stop
As a general rule you should be disciplined and not change your stops. Remember - losers average losers. This is really hard at first and we’re going to look at that in more detail later. There are some good reasons to modify stops but they are rare. One reason is if another risk management process demands you stop trading and close positions. We’ll look at this later. In that case just close out your positions at market and take the loss/gains as they are. Another is event risk. If you have some big upcoming data like Non Farm Payrolls that you know can move the market +/- 150 pips and you have no edge going into the release then many traders will take off or scale down their positions. They’ll go back into the positions when the data is out and the market has quietened down after fifteen minutes or so. This is a matter of some debate - many traders consider it a coin toss and argue you win some and lose some and it all averages out. Trailing stops can also be used to ‘lock in’ profits. We looked at those before. As the trade moves in your favour (say up if you are long) the stop loss ratchets with it. This means you may well end up ‘stopping out’ at a profit - as per the below example. The mighty trailing stop loss order It is perfectly reasonable to have your stop loss move in the direction of PNL. This is not exposing you to more risk than you originally were comfortable with. It is taking less and less risk as the trade moves in your favour. Trend-followers in particular love trailing stops. One final question traders ask is what they should do if they get stopped out but still like the trade. Should they try the same trade again a day later for the same reasons? Nope. Look for a different trade rather than getting emotionally wed to the original idea. Let’s say a particular stock looked cheap based on valuation metrics yesterday, you bought, it went down and you got stopped out. Well, it is going to look even better on those same metrics today. Maybe the market just doesn’t respect value at the moment and is driven by momentum. Wait it out. Otherwise, why even have a stop in the first place?
Entering and exiting winning positions
Take profits are the opposite of stop losses. They are also resting orders, left with the broker, to automatically close your position if it reaches a certain price. Imagine I’m long EURUSD at 1.1250. If it hits a previous high of 1.1400 (150 pips higher) I will leave a sell order to take profit and close the position. The rookie mistake on take profits is to take profit too early. One should start from the assumption that you will win on no more than half of your trades. Therefore you will need to ensure that you win more on the ones that work than you lose on those that don’t. Sad to say but incredibly common: retail traders often take profits way too early This is going to be the exact opposite of what your emotions want you to do. We are going to look at that in the Psychology of Trading chapter. Remember: let winners run. Just like stops you need to know in advance the level where you will close out at a profit. Then let the trade happen. Don’t override yourself and let emotions force you to take a small profit. A classic mistake to avoid. The trader puts on a trade and it almost stops out before rebounding. As soon as it is slightly in the money they spook and cut out, instead of letting it run to their original take profit. Do not do this.
Entering positions with limit orders
That covers exiting a position but how about getting into one? Take profits can also be left speculatively to enter a position. Sometimes referred to as “bids” (buy orders) or “offers” (sell orders). Imagine the price is 1.1250 and the recent low is 1.1205. You might wish to leave a bid around 1.2010 to enter a long position, if the market reaches that price. This way you don’t need to sit at the computer and wait. Again, typically traders will use tech analysis to identify attractive levels. Again - other traders will cluster with your orders. Just like the stop loss we need to bake that in. So this time if we know everyone is going to buy around the recent low of 1.1205 we might leave the take profit bit a little bit above there at 1.1210 to ensure it gets done. Sure it costs 5 more pips but how mad would you be if the low was 1.1207 and then it rallied a hundred points and you didn’t have the trade on?! There are two more methods that traders often use for entering a position. Scaling in is one such technique. Let’s imagine that you think we are in a long-term bulltrend for AUDUSD but experiencing a brief retracement. You want to take a total position of 500,000 AUD and don’t have a strong view on the current price action. You might therefore leave a series of five bids of 100,000. As the price moves lower each one gets hit. The nice thing about scaling in is it reduces pressure on you to pick the perfect level. Of course the risk is that not all your orders get hit before the price moves higher and you have to trade at-market. Pyramiding is the second technique. Pyramiding is for take profits what a trailing stop loss is to regular stops. It is especially common for momentum traders. Pyramiding into a position means buying more as it goes in your favour Again let’s imagine we’re bullish AUDUSD and want to take a position of 500,000 AUD. Here we add 100,000 when our first signal is reached. Then we add subsequent clips of 100,000 when the trade moves in our favour. We are waiting for confirmation that the move is correct. Obviously this is quite nice as we humans love trading when it goes in our direction. However, the drawback is obvious: we haven’t had the full amount of risk on from the start of the trend. You can see the attractions and drawbacks of both approaches. It is best to experiment and choose techniques that work for your own personal psychology as these will be the easiest for you to stick with and build a disciplined process around.
Risk:reward and win ratios
Be extremely skeptical of people who claim to win on 80% of trades. Most traders will win on roughly 50% of trades and lose on 50% of trades. This is why risk management is so important! Once you start keeping a trading journal you’ll be able to see how the win/loss ratio looks for you. Until then, assume you’re typical and that every other trade will lose money. If that is the case then you need to be sure you make more on the wins than you lose on the losses. You can see the effect of this below. A combination of win % and risk:reward ratio determine if you are profitable A typical rule of thumb is that a ratio of 1:3 works well for most traders. That is, if you are prepared to risk 100 pips on your stop you should be setting a take profit at a level that would return you 300 pips. One needn’t be religious about these numbers - 11 pips and 28 pips would be perfectly fine - but they are a guideline. Again - you should still use technical analysis to find meaningful chart levels for both the stop and take profit. Don’t just blindly take your stop distance and do 3x the pips on the other side as your take profit. Use the ratio to set approximate targets and then look for a relevant resistance or support level in that kind of region.
Not all returns are equal. Suppose you are examining the track record of two traders. Now, both have produced a return of 14% over the year. Not bad! The first trader, however, made hundreds of small bets throughout the year and his cumulative PNL looked like the left image below. The second trader made just one bet — he sold CADJPY at the start of the year — and his PNL looked like the right image below with lots of large drawdowns and volatility. Would you rather have the first trading record or the second? If you were investing money and betting on who would do well next year which would you choose? Of course all sensible people would choose the first trader. Yet if you look only at returns one cannot distinguish between the two. Both are up 14% at that point in time. This is where the Sharpe ratio helps . A high Sharpe ratio indicates that a portfolio has better risk-adjusted performance. One cannot sensibly compare returns without considering the risk taken to earn that return. If I can earn 80% of the return of another investor at only 50% of the risk then a rational investor should simply leverage me at 2x and enjoy 160% of the return at the same level of risk. This is very important in the context of Execution Advisor algorithms (EAs) that are popular in the retail community. You must evaluate historic performance by its risk-adjusted return — not just the nominal return. Incidentally look at the Sharpe ratio of ones that have been live for a year or more ... Otherwise an EA developer could produce two EAs: the first simply buys at 1000:1 leverage on January 1st ; and the second sells in the same manner. At the end of the year, one of them will be discarded and the other will look incredible. Its risk-adjusted return, however, would be abysmal and the odds of repeated success are similarly poor.
The Sharpe ratio works like this:
It takes the average returns of your strategy;
It deducts from these the risk-free rate of return i.e. the rate anyone could have got by investing in US government bonds with very little risk;
It then divides this total return by its own volatility - the more smooth the return the higher and better the Sharpe, the more volatile the lower and worse the Sharpe.
For example, say the return last year was 15% with a volatility of 10% and US bonds are trading at 2%. That gives (15-2)/10 or a Sharpe ratio of 1.3. As a rule of thumb a Sharpe ratio of above 0.5 would be considered decent for a discretionary retail trader. Above 1 is excellent. You don’t really need to know how to calculate Sharpe ratios. Good trading software will do this for you. It will either be available in the system by default or you can add a plug-in.
VAR is another useful measure to help with drawdowns. It stands for Value at Risk. Normally people will use 99% VAR (conservative) or 95% VAR (aggressive). Let’s say you’re long EURUSD and using 95% VAR. The system will look at the historic movement of EURUSD. It might spit out a number of -1.2%. A 5% VAR of -1.2% tells you you should expect to lose 1.2% on 5% of days, whilst 95% of days should be better than that This means it is expected that on 5 days out of 100 (hence the 95%) the portfolio will lose 1.2% or more. This can help you manage your capital by taking appropriately sized positions. Typically you would look at VAR across your portfolio of trades rather than trade by trade. Sharpe ratios and VAR don’t give you the whole picture, though. Legendary fund manager, Howard Marks of Oaktree, notes that, while tools like VAR and Sharpe ratios are helpful and absolutely necessary, the best investors will also overlay their own judgment. Investors can calculate risk metrics like VaR and Sharpe ratios (we use them at Oaktree; they’re the best tools we have), but they shouldn’t put too much faith in them. The bottom line for me is that risk management should be the responsibility of every participant in the investment process, applying experience, judgment and knowledge of the underlying investments.Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital What he’s saying is don’t misplace your common sense. Do use these tools as they are helpful. However, you cannot fully rely on them. Both assume a normal distribution of returns. Whereas in real life you get “black swans” - events that should supposedly happen only once every thousand years but which actually seem to happen fairly often. These outlier events are often referred to as “tail risk”. Don’t make the mistake of saying “well, the model said…” - overlay what the model is telling you with your own common sense and good judgment.
Coming up in part III
Available here Squeezes and other risks Market positioning Bet correlation Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits *** Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
I have been involved with an organization called Tradehouse that is affiliated with the popular MLM IML/IM MASTERY ACADEMY/whatever name they go by now... sadly for a few months now. If you have any friends or family that are involved with either of these entities - please get them out if you can. They have probably already been roped in and indoctrinated with the language that the community uses (which often includes every clap back and argument in the book) but please try anyways. They get you in by leveraging the higher ups in their organization ("chairman") and showing them live their lavish lifestyles.. and imply that you can too. As soon as you're welcomed in you're lovebombed and called "family" by everyone in this massive telegram group chat. And then it's radio silence right after. You're assumed to learn everything that you can about trading on your own. And soon you realize it's impossible because retail trading involves SO much risk.. which is exactly why many DON'T... lmao. You're literally trading against big banks and hedge funds. And if you don't know anything about trading let me tell you something that you might not know yet - for every winner or winning trade there is a loser. Banks can afford to trade because they are going in trades from both positions and skimming off the top of the profits. Retail traders? Yeah we aren't so lucky lol. So you realize that trading isn't as easy as it seems.. but your monthly payment is coming up and you have to do something. Here is where they get you - once you sign up (RECRUIT) two people you get your monthly fee waived (mind you.. JUST FOR THAT MONTH). The pressure is then on you to flex a lifestyle you don't have yet, in order to sell people a dream you aren't even living. All to avoid a monthly charge that they are going to have to handle unless they start the same cycle.. It's honestly horrible. The whole thing is just slimly. Everyone that is brought in is indoctrinated and taught to say the exact same things, just mindless robots. "Its all about the mindset if you're losing it's on you" "Forex isn't a scam" "broke mindset" just the dumbest stuff.. I’m making this post to anyone on here that was like me, just looking for all the information that they could about what they think or thought seemed like a good idea, but suddenly doesnt.. your conscience knows. It’s okay to get roped into these things, they are marketers after all. You aren’t stupid for joining or inquiring, and if you’re in it already like me you can make it out. You’ve already done the first step and that’s look outside of the bubble.. time to pop it. Anyone that has any questions about the above groups, advice or stuff you’d like to hear about my experience please drop it in the comments. I’m not sure how reddit works still lol but I’m always free to help.
ILPT request : How would you launder money that you already have in an E-wallet?
This is a hypothetical scenario. Imagine you had a lot of money in an E-wallet, say $500,000 which has been illegally earned online through trading operations (forex). How would you turn that into clean money? Edit :- Anyone has serious suggestion? Edit (1) :- It is not illegal to trade forex because where this hypothetical person lives, it's illegal to trade with an overseas broker and in his country, there are big restrictions on forex trading so it's much harder to make money in his own country for him as compared to the overseas broker.
Hi, I’m 16 borrowed 1k from my parents. I was confident i can be profitable after studying and trading paper money for 4 months. Basically after months of trading on a live account I blew up my 1k account. It was a good experience and somewhat knowledgeable. For the past few weeks I was up +500 then down -400 then finally I blew up my account. Shortly after blowing my account I’ve realized, trading might not be my thing or I just need more practice. This made me realize how much greed and how much trading is more of a psychological warfare. It was easy to stick to your trading plan using only 1-3% of your account per trade when your not using real money. My plan for now is to just try and get a job and return the money i borrowed (still scared to say i lost all the money) and keep paper trading for 6 months or longer. Edit: Thanks for the advice and helpful comments as well as for the criticism. I’ve been reading the comments and getting the most value out of them. I’ve decided to follow some of the comments I think made the most sense. So here’s my plan:
Get a part time job
Pay back my parents
Learn, practice, learn forex
Also a lot of people have asked me how in the world did I manage to trade when I’m only 16. Answer to that is my parents agreed to open an account under their own name. Also thank you again for going out of your way giving advices. It really helps me out a lot.
I always dreamt of becoming a multi millionaire in 5 to 10 years but this guy has brought an interesting point to the table:
Day Trading Market Ceiling There also a Day Trading Market Ceiling. A successful day trader (not an investor, though) will eventually get capped out, as the market simply can’t accommodate an infinitely increasing position size for a particular strategy. To make more the trader either needs to alter the strategy, or also trade something else…and this may or may not work. Change one thing and you can’t assume all else will stay the same. To attain the returns discussed in the “How Much Day Traders Make,” multiple trades are made each day. Trades are likely only lasting a couple minutes. While multiple-millions of dollars worth of stocks, futures or currencies may change hands over the course of couple hours, day traders have precise entry points. Therefore, position size is limited to the amount of liquidity (volume) available at the exact moment a trader needs to get into and out of trades. Investors, hedge funds and mutual funds can accumulate or dispose of positions over weeks, taking advantage of days or even weeks worth liquidity. Day traders don’t have that luxury. It doesn’t matter if a stock trades millions of shares a day; if there is only 100 shares available when they need to take the trade (based on the strategy) that’s all they get. That’s an extreme example, but at any given moment there isn’t infinite liquidity available–there is what there is, and that means there is a limit to how big of a position you can accumulate and dispose of when your strategy calls for it. Based on personal experience, in day trading forex I wouldn’t be comfortable taking more than 5 standard lots on a day trade. Some may take more, most traders would take way less. Taking a larger amount would mean significantly increased risk of slippage or partial fills (you end up with the whole position on losing trades, but only partial positions on some winning trades). Possible gains attained by taking a larger position are offset by these negative factors. At 10:1 or 15:1 leverage a forex day trader–using a day trading forex strategy similar to mine— may cap out at around a $50,000 to $75,000 account (including leverage, that means trading close to $1million). Beyond that, they may find little additional gains, unless they alter their strategy, take longer term trades or stagger their entries and exits at various prices. Changing a strategy to accommodate a larger position isn’t a bad thing, but it takes additional research/practice time…and is it worth it? Only each individual can answer that for them self. In the ES futures market I cap out at about 10 contracts, and that only requires a $40,000 to $75,000 account (maybe even less depending on how much you risk per trade). There is no reason to trade more in my opinion. Could you day trade more contracts? Sure, you could probably get away with 100 contracts some days/some trades…but why? It would take a long time to work up to carrying those sorts of positions, and even trading a few contracts can produce a good living. The same goes for the stock market. Even in a very liquid stock or ETF like the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) you will hit a limit on how much you can effectively trade on a short time frame. It may be a big limit, but you do hit it. To see the minimum amount of capital you need to day trade, see How Much Do I Need to Become a Day Trader. The bottom line is that you hit a limit on the amount of capital you can utilize effectively, and beyond that your percentage returns will likely decrease. For example, it’s much easier to make 10% a month on a $20,000 account than it is to make 10% a month on $20,000,000. That means day trader tend to withdraw all proceeds over and above their “efficient capital limit.” So a $50,000 day trading forex accounts stays a $50,000 account and monthly profits are withdrawn and spent (like any other job) or allocated to something else. In other words the account doesn’t keep compounding indefinitely, the trader nor the market can withstand doing that…there are ceilings…psychological, natural (life) and structural (market).
And more importantly how much of a profit? I think the question above is the most important. It would basically show if you could make a living out of day trading or do it as a side job/money making hobby or stop since the time spent isn't worth the profits. A few questions from me, someone who spent a while doing several courses and learnt a few things about trading through forex. I make a profit on Forex and have a relatively green account history with a diversified portfolio, but since I am dealing with tiny lots the profit is negligible. The market is mostly driven my emotion not by math or science. Past prices, trend, support and resistant lines do matter for sure and I say this from experience. But is the probability of them failing low enough for me to go in with bigger lots? Nope. Throw in a few indicators and some fundamental analysis which makes things very confusing but doable after some practise and you only push that probability slightly lower. Probability and statistics wins this game and no one can deny it. You may argue a 60/40 win rate is you essentially making money at the end of the day but those odds mean small lots and a hobby more than a job to me. Charts look cool, the indicators cool, trading on a world stage very cool. But will my daily profits get me more than a cup of coffee at Starbucks. Nah. Thoughts from a newbie so hope you can prove me wrong.
Someone posted on here a few days ago asking about forex and forex trading in Kenya, I have gone through the responses and clearly, most people don’t have an idea. It is 3am in the morning and am in a good mood so let me make this post. This will be a comprehensive and lengthy post so grab a pen and paper and sit down. We’ll be here a while. FIRST OF ALL, who am I..? I am a forex trader, in Nairobi, Kenya..i have been actively involved in forex since I found out about it in Feb 2016 when I somehow ended up in a wealth creation seminar (lol) in pride inn Westlands, the one close to Mpaka Rd. Luckily for me, it was not one of those AIM global meetings or I’d be on Facebook selling God knows what those guys sell. I did not take it seriously till August of the same year and I have been active ever since. I don’t teach, mentor or sell a course or signals, I trade my own money. I am also posting from a throwaway account because I don’t want KRA on my ass. What the fuck is forex and forex trading. In simple plain English, forex is like the stock market but for currencies. Stock Market = Shares, forex = currencies. If you want more in-depth explanation, google is your friend. These currencies are pegged on specific countries, united states- dollar, UK- pound, euro zone- euro, Switzerland- Swiss franc, Kenya- Kenya shilling.. you get the point. Now, there are specific events and happenings between these economies that affect the movement and values of the currencies, driving their value (purchasing power up and down). Forex trading exploits these movements to make money. When the value is going up, we buy and vice versa (down –sell) Is forex trading illegal in Kenya? Is it a scam? Illegal, no. scam, no. All the banks in the world do it (KCB made about 4 billion from trading forex in 2019) Have there been scams involving forex in Kenya? Yes. Here is one that happened recently. This one is the most infamous one yet. Best believe that this is not the end of these type of scams because the stupidity, greed and gullibility of human beings is unfathomable. However, by the end of this post, I hope you won’t fall for such silliness. What next how do I make it work..? Am glad you asked. Generally, there are two ways to go about it. One, you teach yourself. This is the equivalent of stealing our dad’s car and hoping that the pedal you hit is the brake and not the accelerator. It is the route I took, it is the most rewarding and a huge ego boost when you finally make it on your own. Typically, this involves scouring the internet for hours upon hours going down rabbit holes, thinking you have made it telling all your friends how you will be a millionaire then losing all your money. Some people do not have the stomach for that. The second route is more practical, structured and smarter. First Learn the basics. There is a free online forex course at www.babypips.com/learn/forex this is merely an introductory course. Basically it is learning the parts of a car before they let you inside the car. Second, start building your strategy. By the time you are done with the babypips, you will have a feel of what the forex market is, what interests you, etc. Tip..Babypips has a lot of garbage. It is good for introductory purposes but not good for much else, pick whatever stick to you or jumps at you the first time. Nonsense like indicators should be ignored. The next step is now the most important. Developing the skill and building your strategy. As a beginner, you want to exhaust your naivety before jumping into the more advanced stuff. Eg can you identify a trend, what is a pair, what is position sizing, what is metatrader 4 and how to operate it, what news is good for a currency, when can I trade, what are the different trading sessions, what is technical analysis, what is market sentiment, what are bullish conditions what is emotion management, how does my psychology affect my trading (more on this later) an I a swing, scalper or day trader etc Mentors and forex courses.. you have probably seen people advertising how they can teach and mentor you on how to trade forex and charging so much money for it. Somehow it seems that these people are focused on the teaching than the trading. Weird, right..? Truth is trading is hard, teaching not quite. A common saying in the industry is “Those who can’t trade, teach” you want to avoid all these gurus on Facebook and Instagram, some are legit but most are not. Sifting the wheat from the chaff is hard but I did that for you. The info is available online on YouTube, telegram channels etc. am not saying not to spend money on a course, if you find a mentor whose style resonates with you and the course is reasonably priced, please, go ahead and buy..it will cut your learning curve in half. People are different. What worked for me might not work for you. Here are some nice YouTube channels to watch. These guys are legit..
After a short period of time, you will be able to sniff out bs teachers with relative ease. You will also discover some of your own and expand the list. Two tips, start with the oldest videos first and whichever of these resonates with you, stick with till the wheels fall off. How long will it take until things start making sense Give yourself time to grow and learn. This is all new to you and you are allowed to make mistakes, to fail and discover yourself. Realistically, depending on the effort you put in, you will not start seeing results until after 6 months. Could take longeshorter so there is no guarantee. Social media, Mentality, Psychology and Books Online, forex trading might not have the best reputation online because it takes hard work and scammers and gurus give it a bad name. However, try to not get sucked into the Instagram trader lifestyle as it is nowhere close to what the reality is. You will not make millions tomorrow or the day after, you might never even make it in this market. But that is the reality of life. Nothing is promised, nothing is guaranteed. Your mentality, beliefs and ego will be challenged in this market. You will learn things that will make you blood boil, you will ask yourself daily, how is this possible, why don’t they teach this in school..bla bla bla..it will be hard but growth is painful, if it wasn’t we’d all be billionaires. Take a break, take a walk, drink a glass of whatever you like or roll one..detox. Chill with your girl (or man) Gradually you will develop mental toughness that will set you up for life. Personally, I sorta ditched religion and picked up stoicism. Whatever works for you. Psychology, this is unfortunately one of the most neglected aspects of your personal development in this journey. Do you believe in yourself? Can you stand by your convictions when everyone is against you? Can you get up every day uncertain of the future? There will be moments where you will question yourself, am I even doing the right thing? the right way? It is normal and essential for your growth. People who played competitive sports have a natural advantage here. Remember the game is first won in your head then on the pitch. Books: ironically, books that helped me the most were the mindset books, Think and grow rich, trading for a living, 4 hour work week, the monk who sold his Ferrari..just google mindset and psychology books, most trading books are garbage. Watch and listen to people who have made it in the investing business. Ray Dalio, warren, Bill Ackman and Carl Icahn. This is turning out to be lengthier than I anticipated so I’ll try to be brief for the remaining parts. Brokers You will need to open up an account with a broker. Get a broker who is regulated. Australian ones (IC Market and Pepperstone) are both legit, reliable and regulated. Do your research. I’d avoid local ones because I’ve heard stories of wide spreads and liquidity problems. International brokers have never failed me. There are plenty brokers, there is no one size fits all recommendation. If it ain’t broke..don’t fix it. Money transfer. All brokers accept wire transfers, you might need to call your bank to authorize that, avoid Equity bank. Stanchart and Stanbic are alright. Large withdrawals $10k+ you will have to call them prior. Get Skrill and Neteller if you don’t like banks like me, set up a Bitcoin wallet for faster withdrawals, (Payoneer and Paypal are accepted by some brokers, just check with them.) How much money can I make..? I hate this question because people have perceived ceilings of income in their minds, eg 1 million ksh is too much to make per month or 10,000ksh is too little. Instead, work backwards. What % return did I make this month/ on this trade. Safaricom made 19.5% last year, if you make 20% you have outperformed them. If you reach of consistency where you can make x% per month on whatever money you have, then there are no limits to how much you can make. How much money do I need to start with..? Zero. You have all the resources above, go forth. There are brokers who provide free bonuses and withdraw-able profits. However, to make a fulltime income you will need some serious cash. Generally, 50,000 kes. You can start lower or higher but if you need say 20k to live comfortably and that is a 10% return per month, then you can do the math on how big your account should be. Of course things like compound interest come into play but that is dependent on your skill level. I have seen people do spectacular things with very little funds. Taxes..? Talk to a lawyer or an accountant. I am neither. Family? Friends? Unfortunately, people will not understand why you spend hundreds of hours watching strangers on the internet so it is best to keep it from them. Eventually you will make it work and they will come to your corner talking about how they always knew you’d make it. The journey will be lonely, make some trading buddies along the way. You’d be surprised at how easy it is when people are united by their circumstances (and stupidity) I have guys who are my bros from South Africa and Lebanon who I have never met but we came up together and are now homies. Join forums, ask questions and grow. That is the only way to learn. Ideally, a group of 5-10 friends committed to learning and growth is the best model. Pushing each other to grow and discovering together. Forex is real and you can do amazing things with it. It is not a get rich quick scheme. If you want a quick guaranteed income, get a job. And now it is 5am, fuck. This is oversimplified and leaves out many many aspects. Happy to answer any questions.
I've seen mentions of Nick Shawn & Momo Forex here; Here's why i don't like them...
I want everyone who searches these people to see this on forex cuz this is the truth they need to see! Hopefully it will save alot of traders throwing money at these fools! Look listen i got both of their courses for free from a website i found a download. Nick & Momo charge 1k per course for terrible content & i lost a little respect for nick & momo as momo convinced nick to make a signals group which nick pledged never to do! That Group makes 70k a month from it; it's called LevelsFX also these guys both have full courses 1 each that sell for over 1k and nick and momo's excuse for doing LevelsFX was ppl were re-selling their courses and they had to get a legal team and pay 4-5 figures a month to take down few small time course re-sellers on Instagram Look listen i got both of their courses for free from a website i found a download they charge 1k per course for terrible content & i lost a little respect for nick & momo as momo convinced nick to make a signals group which nick pledged never to do! That Group makes 70k a month from it; it's called LevelsFX also these guys both have full courses 1 each that sell for over 1k and nick and momo's excuse for doing LevelsFX was ppl were re-selling their courses and they had to get a legal team and pay 4-5 figures a month to take down few small time course re-sellers on Instagram which is obvious BS + Nick would keep on changing the number he said he needed to pay every month etc obvious liar and taking. Advantage of his audience like any Guru. The real reason they started this service is because the courses weren't paying and that's how they make their money and live trading profits etc. Can easily be faked look here:which is obvious BS + Nick would keep on changing the number he said he needed to pay every month etc obvious liar and taking. Advantage of his audience like any Guru. Search: Gurus MT4 Exposed on Google or Youtube for more info Don't buy a Guru's course if you can download it for free not seen one yet that's worth it! ~ Never have bought a course! Site i used was Coursed co and searched LucidFX (Still available for download) & MissionFX I don't like Gurus i hate them & I have to say Nickshawnfx has let me down in the past and I'm seeing many mentions of them on forex . As you know no-one without a third party verified track record (real server data from a well regulated broker) can be trusted. So pretty much no-one in the FX industry can be trusted. Edit: Mistakes fixed etc
I’ve been looking for a broker that has an API for index futures and ideally also futures options. I’m looking to use the API to build a customized view of my risk based on balances, positions, and market conditions. Searching the algotrading sub I found many API-related posts, but then when I actually read them and their comments, I found they’re often lacking in real substance. It turns out many brokers or data services that have APIs don’t actually support index futures and options via the API, and instead they focus on equities, forex, or cypto. So here’s the list of what I’ve found so far. This isn’t a review of these brokers or APIs and note that I have a specific application in mind (index futures and futures options). Perhaps you’re looking for an API for equities, or you just want data and not a broker, in which case there may be a few options. Also, I’m based in the US so I didn’t really look for brokers or platforms outside the US. If you have experience with these APIs, please chime in with your thoughts. Also, I may have missed some brokers or platforms. If I did or if you see anything that needs correction please let me know.
Broker with a variety of platforms including CQG, Rithmic, TT, some with APIs
Wow, this list grew longer than I originally thought it would be. If you spot a mistake, please let me know and I’ll correct it. Edit: - added Lightspeed API - updated Dashprime to indicate some of the APIs available - added Medved Trader to table - added marketstack to table
Housemate potentially involved in a Forex MLM/Ponzi scheme
I’m curious if anyone here has heard of or is familiar with the company KOT4X? I have a housemate who claims to have made over $10 million from this website in a few months which I find utterly ridiculous. This all began with him trying to get the rest of us signed up for his “company” which I overheard him tell someone else is KOT4X. I did some digging on them but all I’ve been able to uncover is that the “company” is sketchy as hell. It’s registered offshore (St Vincent and the Grenadines) and makes some pretty serious promises regarding how much money can be made. The catch, of course, is that it costs ≈$250 to create an account (and I would imagine there are further monthly fees associated with this). He has mentioned that there are several hundred videos that teach how to make significant money off of Forex trading, which leads me to suspect this specific website is some iteration of IMAcademy. Needless to say, I didn’t take the bait or really remark on it but now I’m thinking I should have. This housemate has not yet paid his share of the rent for the month; he keeps saying that he has and it’s “processing” and that his low standard of living given his supposed wealth is due to the fact he is “humble.” Coupled with this, I am fairly certain this housemate stole about $120 from my wallet along with my AirPods from my room, which I would imagine he sold for cash. He of course denies this and it’s frankly impossible to prove without either catching him in the act or seeing him use the AirPods, which hasn’t happened yet. If he doesn’t pay his rent within the next few days, I have all intentions of doing everything in my power to get him kicked off the lease and evicted from the house because I frankly don’t feel comfortable living here. I’m in the process of finding someone else to take my spot on the lease, but it’s not promising at the moment. Really, I’m just looking for any help or advice anyone can give regarding this supposed “company” and what I can do to stave off what I imagine will be further acts of desperation to come. I’m happy to answer any questions anyone has about it to the best of my ability, but I really don’t know much more than what he has told us. Is it possible to report him specifically to the SEC or another agency for investigation? Ordinarily I’d be inclined to try and talk him out of it, but given the theft I’d just like to see him gone and never see him again.
This thread is the direct continuation of my previous entry, which you can find here. I have the feeling my rambles may be long, so I'm not going to repeat anything I already said in my previous post for the sake of keeping this brief. What is this? I am backtesting the strategy shared by ParallaxFx. I have just completed my second run of testing, and I am here to share my results with those who are interested. If you want to read more about the strategy, go to my previous thread where I linked it. What changed? Instead of using a fixed target of the -100.0 Fibonacci extension, I tracked both the -61.8 and the -100.0 targets. ParallaxFx used the -61.8 as a target, but never tried the second one, so I wanted to compare the two and see what happens. Where can I see your backtested result? I am going to do something I hope I won't regret and share the link to my spreadsheet. Hopefully I won't be doxxed, but I think I should be fine. You can find my spreadsheet at this link. There are a lot of entries, so it may take a while for them to load. In the "Trades" tab, you will find every trade I backtested with an attached screenshot and the results it would have had with the extended and the unextended target. You can see the UNCOMPOUNDED equity curve in the Summary tab, together with the overall statistics for the system. What was the sample size? I backtested on the Daily chart, from January 2017 to December 2019, over 28 currency pairs. I took a total of 310 trades - although keep in mind that every position is most often composed by two entries, meaning that you can roughly halve this number. What is the bottom line? If you're not interested in the details, here are the stats of the strategy based on how I traded it.
Extended: 223.46 R of return, 2.34 of profit factor, 0.72 R of expected value, 46.13% winrate. The average win is 2.72 R while the average loss is -1.00 R.
Unextended: 172.20 R of return, 2.19 of profit factor, 0.56 R of expected value, 53.23% winrate. The average win is 1.92 R while the average loss is -1.00 R.
The highest drawdown for both systems was 18 R. This seems like a lot, but remember you're splitting risk in half.
Here you can see the two uncompounded equity curves side by side: red is unextended and blue is extended. Who wins? The test suggests the strategy to be more profitable with the extended target. In addition, most of the trades that reached the unextended target but reversed before reaching the extended, were trades that I would have most likely not have taken with the extented target. This is because there was a resistance/support area in the way of the -100.0 extension level, but there was enough room for price to reach the -61.8 level. I will probably trade this strategy using the -100.0 level as target, unless there is an area in the way. In that case I will go for the unextended target. Drawdown management The expected losing streak for this system, using the extended target, is 7 trades in a row in a sample size of 100 trades. My goal is to have a drawdown cap of 4%, so my risk per trade will be 0.54%. If I ever find myself in a losing streak of more than 8 trades, I will reduce my risk per trade further. What's next? I'll be taking this strategy live. The wisest move would be to repeat the same testing over lower timeframes to verify the edge plays out there as well, but I would not be able to trust my results because I would have vague memories of where price went because of the testing I just did. I also believe markets are fractals, so I see no reason why this wouldn't work on lower timeframes. Before going live, I will expand this spreadsheet to include more specific analysis and I will continue backtesting at a slower pace. The goal is to reach 20 years of backtesting over these 28 pairs and put everything into this spreadsheet. It's not something I will do overnight, but I'll probably do one year every odd day, and maybe a couple more during the weekend. I think I don't have much else to add. I like the strategy. Feel free to ask questions.
Hello everyone just finished the book "How to Day Trade for a Living" by Andrew, a great book i made sure to take my time reading and digesting as much as i can and it took me 2 weeks of slow reading and revising everything to finish the book. Anyway i just have few questions and need advice on what to do next.
The Concept of HFT is still a mysterious fear for me, it sounds like this thing making sure you fail in trading and very few people beat it, is there HFT all the time on stocks?
how long do you think i should Day Trade in a simulation before moving to the real thing, 3 months or more?
is there anything else you think i should learn or practice before starting ( plan to start after 6 months to make sure I'm not rushing into this )
you can't day trade with less than 25,000$ well that is a big capital for me to start with, is there really no way to day trade with 1,000$ I'm willing to start small ( also not from US ) if there is truly no way to start below 25k do you think i should start Forex or Options since it allows low capital and build my way up to Day Trading
if i should start with one of those two will the same concept work there, or is it a totally different beast that requires different setup, Strategies, scanner and preparation for?
well that's about it for now sorry if there are basic concepts i still don't understand, i know that reading that book isn't a foundation but just scrapping the surface and i want to prepare for this as optimally as i can. and Thank you for reading
Hey there market killers... I'm relatively new to this sub, but I've been pushing and learning a bout forex for over three years now. A bit of context... I'm 21, unemployed and still living with my mom. So yeah, pretty much at the make it or break it age. I've studied and tried out just about everything that relates to forex strategies and testing, and I'm simply not being profitable. I hate the feeling of being able to grow a large account, but not a small one (I blow when I trade on a real). As for demo accounts, deceptively simple. I'm really stranded and have no idea how I'm going to earn an income of some sort. I need HELP. Not dismissing the fact that it may have taken some of you here much longer and you were in more desperate situations, but I feel like I'll breakdown if I don't man up and make money. Some traders tell me 'risk Management's others tell me 'wrong setup' and honestly, I don't know whether it's either or both. Any sort of help will be GREATLY appreciated... I can't give up.
Hello! I am new to the general spectrum of e-commerce and passive income. This will be a relatively long post, so you can understand my situation. I am 18 years old and live in a dorm at Georgia State University in downtown Atlanta. I'm interested in passive income, because a life goal of mine is to be financially sustainable without that dreadful and desperate struggle to stay afloat. I've worked in a restaurant/bar and Chick-Fil-A. I like to take opportunities to grow and I'm an extremely hard worker who's tackled many personal challenges, but these experiences always ended up d r e a d f u l for my mental health. I wish I could adapt to the physical job norm, but my personality strengths don't align with that particular field. I am currently studying business at Georgia State and have a good head start. I also have a good amount of savings in my bank account, setting me up for my journey. I am hoping to have some form of reliable income by the end of the school year in May. I have a passion to devoting myself to this work ONLY if it pays. This situation could be even more perfect for me considering my girlfriends dad owns his own small marketing company and has some decently large clients. My girlfriend's parents are also great friends with a man who literally went from dirt poor to being able to support a large family and more through marketing and he owns his own company and offers marketing internships from his company to GSU students. To reiterate, I have nothing but time, savings, and extreme hard work to make passive income pay off and there is nothing I want more than that financial freedom from terrible jobs for people my age. I will devote my time, but only if it is worth it. Here is where I need help. I don't want to end up spending all my money instead of using it for larger gain. I'm all for using money to grow, but I don't know where to go from there. Where should my research and time be allocated in this case? I've researched hours and hours of different sources such as Forex day trading (even my friend is making decent profits with Forex from some like $200 dollar course?!?!), and drop shipping, but seem to hit a brick wall with how much I know on the subject. Do I sacrifice more hours learning youtube and various different forms or income, or do I sacrifice more hours in one particular course or subject? I am VERY on the fence when it comes to these kinds of decisions, only because I want to make the right one. I'm fine with slowly losing a little money to gain experience, but a payment like that sure seems like a leap of faith(right?). I don't necessarily understand how to explain this business model either. I feel scared to talk about it because I understand how the profits occur, but it is the difficult talents you must possess that I do not have. I want to be able to talk about my business pursuit with my parents and have full knowledge and confidence in that what I'm doing is right. The businesses you can start through passive income are possible to be profitable, but how often does that happen and is it REALISTIC that my time I invest into this is worth it? I would hate to throw away a fantastic economic opportunity. I just need to know what direction I should be going towards considering my connections and situation. I lack the confidence to jump in, as I understand I must gain more knowledge. Another issue I face is I need to know where my knowledge and studying should be allocated. I need to know what works and how I can get there. I believe I am capable of anything as I am an extremely high achiever and have always worked hard on the things I'm passionate about. Thinking about my loved ones I'm doing this for only motivates me more and I want to prove to others that I can persevere. If you read this entire thread.. thank you so much for your time. I promise you you've found the correct and capable person, but where do I go from here? I don't mean to sound cocky in any way shape or form, as I am just very ready to take initiative of my extra time so I don't wait around until I get a potentially crap job with low pay. I appreciate this community and I'm looking forward to hopefully getting to build connections and grow. Lastly- I would love links, video advice, emails, and anything else to help out my education on this! Again, thank you so much and have a wonderful day.
I’m actually really sick of this MlM and the people in this I find it disgusting that there are people in this forex trading mlm who know it’s a mlm and still continue to do it Don’t these people feel remorseful ? I know one person who I tried to kind of convince it was a scam when they tried recruiting me but after them being in this for over 1 year I am starting to think she clearly knows it’s a scam and it makes me sick along with her friends who post on their Instagram making it seem they live the ludicrous life style Why are these people such narcissists? And how can honestly live there life this way without being remorseful knowing they are scamming people ? I don’t even think the scamming is even worth the money since she still works in a Walmart store
UK resident got scammed to send money to an Australian bank account. What I did and what to do next?
Hello, I live in England and this is a long post about how I got scammed, presenting my story and asking for advice. Much appreciated to all who go through all of it and send their ideas. Also posted in AusLegal here: https://www.reddit.com/AusLegal/comments/iujgpq/uk_resident_got_scammed_to_send_money_to_an/ So I met a person online, and after chatting a bit she started showing me her gold trading profits. At first I didn't care that much, but she kept showing me profits and I said I wish I knew how to trade like that. She puts me in contact with this person, who is supposed to teach me how to trade. This teacher tells me that I will start with simulated gold trading, and after some time I would move on to real trading. After a couple of days of trading she says I'm ready to trade for real, I say I need more time to do simulated trading. We do another day of simulated trading and she says I'm ready and I should start trading with real money. Hindsight is 20/20, I can't believe what I was thinking. But I did do some checks on these people, like I aske them for pictures of themselves and I google image searched them. No results, not stock images, so I'm like, okay, a good sign. I ask the first person to have a phone call to talk, we do. Okay, fair enough. I ask the first person to send me the link to her design company that she said she owns, and she sends it over. Site is in Chinese but it's filled with a lot of images of homebuilding and some English sentences about home design. I ask her for more photos and it seems okay. I do the same with the "teacher". Google image search, no stock images, no results. I google the platform she's asking me to open an account on, can't find anything about it saying it's a scam. The reviews for the iphone app are mostly 4-5 stars, with people in the reviews complaining that the previous version of the app was better. So after all this, on the 11th of September I transfer the minimum needed to start investing, USD 10,000. I do this by using Transferwise, so I transfer the money in UK pounds to Transferwise (I live in the UK), the money is converted by Transferwise to USD and is send to the scammer's account to an Australian bank on Friday evening. I sleep on it, and next day morning I start panicking, I think my instincts started kicking in, and I do some more research online and I found something similar, not exactly the same scam, but something similar where you meet somebody online, start talking, some people even met with these people, and then they say can teach you or know somebody that can teach you to trade (gold, bitcoin, forex, etc). At that point I really panicked and I realised I got scammed. I try to reach Transferwise, but since it was Saturday, you could only reach them by email, couldn't even call them. I call the bank in Australia, I tell them what happened, I was scammed and the scammers account is with them and I give them the details of the bank account and everything. So literally after a few hours of the money leaving Trasnferwise I contacted the receiving bank. They told me they will pass it on to the Financial Crime team and look into it. I file a report with Action Fraud in the UK, I sent the report number to my bank, to the Australian bank and to Transferwise, but to Transferwise only on Monday when I can contact them again. I search online for some advice, and everybody thinks the best solution is to keep contacting the receiving bank as they could block the account, or the transaction and it could bounce back to Transferwise so I keep doing that. The receiving bank in Australia tells me to contact Transferwise and have them raise a fraud report and to get in contact with the Australian bank. After numerouse calls with Transferwise asking them to contact the receiving bank where I was told there's nothing they can do after the money has left Transferwise, I resort to calling the bank in Australia again. By this point I raised a cyber fraud report with the Australian police as well and sent the report number to the Australian bank. I ask the bank in Australia what is there to do, if they will deny the transfer or do something so that money does not leave the Australian bank account, and they said the Financial Crime team is looking into it, but I could also ask Transferwise to raise a recall request and to contact them, but I say I already did but Transferwise keeps telling me they can't do that. The person from the Australian bank tells me it seems like Transferwise is giving me wrong information. So I decide to call Transferwise again. I reach out to somebody, and they explain it still cannot be done. I'm almost begging them to do it, but they say it cannot be done. I start searching online of any events with TW and recall requests, and I found something where it said Transferwise doesn't want to do it because there's slim chance of getting the money back so they tell customers it cannot be done. I call Transferwise again and push and complain that I think they're just telling me they can't do it just to get rid of me and the person I'm talking to this time says it can actually be done and she'll do that request for me, and she apologises for her colleagues telling me the wrong information previously. I call the Australian bank again to let them know that Transferwise said they will do the recall and if there is anything I can do. They tell me best thing is for me to keep talking to Transferwise, as the Australian bank has done everything it can. Now, Transferwise shows you an estimation in days of how long a transfer will take. I did the transfer on Friday the 11th, and Transferwise estimated that the transfer would be completed by the 16th at 9:30 pm UK time. So doing all this I had some hope that something can happen. Mind you, I called the receiving bank a few hours after the transfer was done by Transferwise, and by their estimate had around 4-5 days until the transfer was complete. I feel like I wasted precious time because Transferwise was not helpful at all, from the start when I raised the scam with them telling me there's nothing they can do, to the moment I had to make around 5 calls just to get them to do the recall request. The 16th passes, the transfer appears complete in Transferwise and I get a message from the scammer that the funds have arrived and I can start trading. I didn't block them because I didn't want to freak them out and withdraw the money immediately it hits their account. I posted my long story here to see if there is something I can do. I had hopes that the Australian bank would block the withdrawal and it would bounce back, or they would block the scammer's account and my money would not be withdrawn and the recall would go through. I also have some hopes that based on what the scammer said today, the money is still in the Australian bank account. I feel like I acted pretty promptly after I realised I got scammed. Contacted the receiving bank, my bank, Transferwise and the authorities both in the UK and Australia. I don't know what else I could have done to get a more positive outcome, but now I'm asking you, the people of this subreddit, is there anything else I can do? Is there a chance the money is still in the scammer's account and the Australian bank has blocked it? Do you guys think Transferwise didn't treat me properly by dismissing me off the bat, and only helping me with the recall request after around 10 calls and pushing? Any advice would be much appreciated. I know I was foolish, I should have trusted my instincts, but I feel I also took some verification steps that I knew from the internet and I contacted every instituion asap after I realised I was scammed, so a few hours after sending the money. TL;DR I got scammed into sending money to an Australian bank account from the UK. What can I do now?
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